According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration on April 16, 2013, the Annual Energy Outlook for 2013 is as follows:
2. Oil price and production trends in AEO2013
The benchmark oil price in AEO2013 is based on spot prices for Brent crude oil (commonly cited as Dated Brent in trade publications), an international benchmark for light sweet crude oil. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price has diverged from Brent and other benchmark prices over the past few years as a result of rapid growth in U.S. midcontinent and Canadian oil production, which has overwhelmed the transportation infrastructure needed to move crude oil from Cushing, Oklahoma, where WTI is quoted, to the Gulf Coast. EIA expects the WTI discount to the Brent price level to decrease over time as additional pipeline projects come on line, and will continue to report WTI prices (a critical reference point for the value of growing production in the U.S. midcontinent), as well as imported refiner acquisition costs (IRAC).
AEO2013 projections of future oil supply include two broad categories: petroleum liquids and other liquid fuels. The term petroleum liquids refers to crude oil and lease condensate—which includes tight oil, shale oil, extra-heavy crude oil, and bitumen (i.e., oil sands, either diluted or upgraded), plant condensate, natural gas plant liquids (NGPL), and refinery gain. The term other liquids refers to oil shale (i.e., kerogen-to-liquids), gas-to-liquids (GTL), coal-to-liquids (CTL), and biofuels (including biomass-to-liquids).
The key factors determining long-term supply, demand, and prices for petroleum and other liquids can be summarized in four broad categories: the economics of non-Organization of the Petroleum-Exporting Countries (OPEC) petroleum liquids supply; OPEC investment and production decisions; the economics of other liquids supply; and world demand for petroleum and other liquids.